Transform Latrobe Growth beyond coal
Now is the time to plan for what we want the Latrobe Valley to be.
But
If nothing is done, we face an unacceptable human cost.
1 in 10 Jobs Lost
With the following effects
The 10 Effects of Brown Coal Mine Closure
#1
Population Loss
Population loss is one of the most widely recognised impacts of an industry closure. The threat it poses doesn’t just stem from the loss of a community’s consumer base or workforce talent pool, but also all of its flow-on effects (refer Effects 2, 3, 4, 7, 8 and 10). In fact, minimising population loss after an industry closure is so important that the Just Transition Institute of Spain prioritises the various alternatives available to it based on the extent to which each one serves as a specific solution to preventing population loss from occurring (Wakeham, 2022).
#2
Fragmented Community
Linked to the problem of population loss is the breaking of community bonds. This not only occurs as the result of friends and family leaving the region, but also the loss of key community members such as those that serve as volunteers for sporting and social clubs (McKenzie, 2012). This loss of community mainstays can then result in the loss of a community’s emotional connection to the region with the exodus of community mainstays being replaced by welfare migrants from outside the region (refer Effect 4) (Kabir, 2022).
#3
Demographic Change
Research has found that younger adults, in particular, are more likely to leave following an industry closure. This is because the impact of an industry closure depends on the age of the retrenched worker. Older workers will often opt to take early retirement, while middle-aged workers will often stay due to family commitments (e.g. school-aged children). In contrast, younger workers, free of such commitments, are far more open to relocating (World Bank Group, 2018). In support of this, a case-study of nine Victorian towns found that their industry closures led to a significant increase in the average age of their respective populations (McKenzie, 2012). Latrobe City already has a median age (42) well above that of the State and National medians (37) (ABS, 2021). With forecasts that by 2031 our region will experience a 39.1% increase in population of retirement age, and an increase of just 2.2% in population of working age (Id.community, 2024) this will impact on our ability to fill emergent jobs.
#4
Declining House Prices and Welfare Migration
Population loss can also result in declining house prices as the sale of properties begins to far exceed demand. This, in turn, can then attract people from a lower socio-economic background who cannot afford housing elsewhere. Referred to as “welfare migration”, it can create perceptions of a “welfare region” thereby leading to a further population exodus, this time comprising residents concerned about the changing demographic profile of their community (McKenzie, 2012). Reflective of this, research indicates that there are three potential “waves” that can occur as a result of an industry closure (World Bank Group, 2018):
1. Local power station employees are retrenched as each power station closes. Many of these will leave the area if alternative jobs offering similar pay and status are not available to them locally.
2. With the loss of the higher incomes earned via the power industry, local retailers, cafes, restaurants etc. also experience an economic downturn, causing many to close.
3. With the out migration of power industry workers (first wave) and other local business owners (second wave), property prices begin to fall leading to an influx of welfare migrants taking advantage of cheaper housing opportunities. This can lead to a third wave in the form of local residents leaving out of concern caused by the changing socio-economic profile of their community.
#5
Loss of Direct and Indirect Employment
The loss of direct employment refers to job losses in the local power industry, while indirect employment refers to job losses in other industries impacted by the loss of power station incomes from the local economy (e.g. retail, food service etc.) (APEC Mining Task Force, 2018). The loss of power industry jobs will hit the region particularly hard due to the higher wages in question. This is something it cannot afford given that the median weekly household income in Latrobe City ($1 260) is already well below the State median of $1 759 (ABS, 2021).
#6
Lack of Transferable Job Skills
The loss of direct employment refers to job losses in the local power industry, while indirect employment refers to job losses in other industries impacted by the loss of power station incomes from the local economy (e.g. retail, food service etc.) (APEC Mining Task Force, 2018). The loss of power industry jobs will hit the region particularly hard due to the higher wages in question. This is something it cannot afford given that the median weekly household income in Latrobe City ($1 260) is already well below the State median of $1 759 (ABS, 2021).
#7
Decline in the level of municipal services
Latrobe City Council (LCC) currently receives around $2 million in revenue from each of the power stations. With their imminent closures, the loss of this income will negatively impact on LCC’s ability to continue funding such services. This problem will be further exacerbated if a population exodus occurs because the resulting decline in residential, industrial and commercial property values, will erode LCC’s rates revenue, thereby leading to a further reduction in municipal services (ICURPC, 2005). With many municipal services dedicated to the way the region looks and functions, this then has flow-on effects on liveability (and therefore population, refer Effect 1), community pessimism (refer Effect 8), and the image of the region (Effect Point 10).
#8
Community pessimism
Multiple studies make reference to the psychological impact that the privatisation of our power industry already had on our local community some three decades ago (i.e. Weller 2017; 2019). One such impact was to create a sense of community pessimism forced with the complete closure of the power industry, such pessimism is likely to increase further. If so, this can have a flow on effect on population levels, the ability to attract new businesses and industry, the reinvestment levels of local business, and community pride.
#9
Increased anti-social behaviour
Increased anti-social behaviour (Kabir, 2022). The combined economic impacts of job losses, declining household income and falling living standards will likely result in an increase in anti-social behaviour (Vivoda et al., 2019). This can take the form of increased domestic violence, vandalism, drug use and other criminal behaviours, as well as increased alcoholism. With Latrobe City already recording one of the highest crime rates per capita in all of Victoria (Crime Statistics Agency Victoria, 2025), it simply cannot afford any further increases. To do so will have flow-on effects on Points 1, 4, 8 and 10.
#10
Damaged Image
All of the afore-mentioned impacts can, in turn, combine to create a further negative impact: damage to the image of the region. This would occur as the result of a media focus on such impacts (Laurence, 2002). Such an occurrence would then create a negative cycle whereby this negative image would then damage efforts to attract business investment, attract a larger population, attract tourists and reinstate community pride. To complete the cycle, this would then exacerbate the problems facing our region, thereby attracting further negative media.
GLP BELIEVES
We need the leadership, vision and financial support to deliver—
A liveable environment which attracts new residents and encourages existing residents to remain.
A replacement level of “economic activity”, for the loss of the native timber industry, three coal mines and their associated power stations.
Immediate action to minimise the duration of the inevitable decline of the LV economy.